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Market Consensus Signals 77% Probability of Federal Government Shutdown by January 31
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/25/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/25/26

Market Consensus Signals 77% Probability of Federal Government Shutdown by January 31

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Market Consensus Signals 28% Probability of J.D. Vance Victory in 2028 Presidential Election
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Market Consensus Signals 28% Probability of J.D. Vance Victory in 2028 Presidential Election

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Prediction Markets Assign 39% Probability to Russian Accession to the Board of Peace by March 31
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Prediction Markets Assign 39% Probability to Russian Accession to the Board of Peace by March 31

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Market Consensus Signals 23% Probability of U.S. Acquisition of Greenland by End of 2026
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/22/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/22/26

Market Consensus Signals 23% Probability of U.S. Acquisition of Greenland by End of 2026

Why The Data Says We Won’t Acquire Greenland

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