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Market Consensus Signals 65% Probability of Giannis Antetokounmpo Remaining in Milwaukee Through Trade Deadline
Sports Henry Pinilis 1/28/26 Sports Henry Pinilis 1/28/26

Market Consensus Signals 65% Probability of Giannis Antetokounmpo Remaining in Milwaukee Through Trade Deadline

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Market Consensus Estimates 6% Probability of Bitcoin Reaching Six Figures by Month End
Henry Pinilis 1/27/26 Henry Pinilis 1/27/26

Market Consensus Estimates 6% Probability of Bitcoin Reaching Six Figures by Month End

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Market Consensus Signals 77% Probability of Federal Government Shutdown by January 31
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/25/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/25/26

Market Consensus Signals 77% Probability of Federal Government Shutdown by January 31

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Prediction Markets Assign 40% Probability to Major Artificial Intelligence Valuation Correction by Year-End
Tech Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Tech Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Prediction Markets Assign 40% Probability to Major Artificial Intelligence Valuation Correction by Year-End

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Market Consensus Signals 28% Probability of J.D. Vance Victory in 2028 Presidential Election
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Market Consensus Signals 28% Probability of J.D. Vance Victory in 2028 Presidential Election

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Prediction Markets Assign 74% Probability to Timothée Chalamet as 2026 Best Actor Winner
Culture Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Culture Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Prediction Markets Assign 74% Probability to Timothée Chalamet as 2026 Best Actor Winner

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Market Consensus Assigns 79% Probability to Trillion-Dollar SpaceX IPO by End of 2026
Finance Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Finance Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Market Consensus Assigns 79% Probability to Trillion-Dollar SpaceX IPO by End of 2026

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Prediction Markets Assign 39% Probability to Russian Accession to the Board of Peace by March 31
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Prediction Markets Assign 39% Probability to Russian Accession to the Board of Peace by March 31

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Prediction Markets Assign 72% Probability to Rick Rieder as Next Federal Reserve Chair Following Trump Endorsement
Henry Pinilis 1/24/26 Henry Pinilis 1/24/26

Prediction Markets Assign 72% Probability to Rick Rieder as Next Federal Reserve Chair Following Trump Endorsement

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Prediction Markets Assign 42% Implied Probability to Meghan Frank Following McDonald Departure
Henry Pinilis 1/22/26 Henry Pinilis 1/22/26

Prediction Markets Assign 42% Implied Probability to Meghan Frank Following McDonald Departure

Who Will Be The Next CEO of Lululemon?

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Market Consensus Signals 23% Probability of U.S. Acquisition of Greenland by End of 2026
Politics Henry Pinilis 1/22/26 Politics Henry Pinilis 1/22/26

Market Consensus Signals 23% Probability of U.S. Acquisition of Greenland by End of 2026

Why The Data Says We Won’t Acquire Greenland

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